Gold Prices and Dollar Index Shows The Underlying Strength of Gold is strong

Gold Prices and the Dollar Index - As a rule of the thumb , when the value of dollar increases relative to other currencies,  the price of Gold tends to fall in dollar terms. Its because gold becomes more expensive in other currencies.  Today spot gold cross the 1600 level in the midst of a bullish dollar trend, it shows the underlying strength of Gold is very strong and this multi year gold bull cycle that started in Mar 2019 will continue.

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Wall Street Melt Up Looks Like the Run Up Before The Dot Com Bust

U.S. stocks ‘Melt Up’ Looks Like The Final Leg Of Run Up That Happened Before The Dot-Com Crash

It seems like no matter the negative headlines including the disruptive and destructive  corona virus epidemic  stocks continue pushing higher.

Inspite of the Wuhan virus outbreak that threatens to  disrupt global supply chain and businesses in an unprecedented scale  , the benchmark the Wall Street  Index has not only regained its losses from its previous highs two weeks ago but have scaled new highs

The markets are ignoring the negative news but choose to place their faith in central bankers and its easy-money policies – like interest rate cuts and liquidity injections from the most powerful central banks in the world – only throwing  rocket fuel on the Melt Up in U.S. stocks.

The writing is on the wall, we might be reaching the late innings of this historic bull market, but the gains are accelerating. This is really looking like what happened in the late 1990s during the run-up to the dot-com peak.

Of course, a brutal bust followed the dot-com bubble... And the Fed is up to some of the same tricks again today. But most important, smart investors who followed the market higher – and got out at a good time – made a killing.

That's exactly what can happen again this time...

For the smart investors , make the  money and  retire,  it could be the final shot, the Melt Up is about to hit a dramatic turn.

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Talking to Young Investors at SIT

On Monday, I was invited by SIT Investment Club to talk to "Let's Talk about Money". This is a financial literacy initiative in collaboration with Doctor Wealth. 

I gave the students an overview about the different type of assets to get started on their investment journey. We also looked into real life examples of different kinds of stocks, such as growth stocks, income stocks, speculative stocks, and how to avoid the pitfalls many investors made so that they can start off in the right way.

To encapsulate my points in one picture, I showed them an illustration of a hamburger. It sums up how they can start building their portfolio with sound asset allocation. 

Instead of diving straight into stocks, a young investor can consider starting with a saving plan which gives predictable returns to form the foundation of their retirement income. 

Insurance is key to and should be budgeted well so that it gives adequate protection and also leaves them with sufficient cash flow to pursue their personal growth.

Finally, when they have accumulate sufficient capital, they can look into deploying their funds into a portfolio of stocks, bonds etc. 

Knowledge is power! I hope all of us will continue learning every day.

For enquiries about how to optimise your assets allocation, email us at 

to: robinhosa@phillip.com.sg, cc: tanyunyou@phillip.com.sg 

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Wuhan Coronovirus Epidemic - When Will The Stock Market Bottomed Out?

The first outbreak on 6 February 2003, and bottomed out  25 April. A strong rebound followed and the indices ended the year higher. MSCI Hong Kong and Hang Seng Index in 2003. Expert say that this virus is less fatal but more infectious and indeed it took only 8 months for SaRs to spread to 8000 people. The Wuhan virus infected 8100 people in 30 days. The fast spreading virus has so far only impacted travel and tourism but the outbreak will inevitably cause a supply chain hiccup and a near-term earnings decline for tech firms with exposure to China. Chinese companies will suffer more than foreign ones. We could also see a delay in China’s 5G deployment and PC and smartphone production trouble. One company that will inevitably suffer is Lenovo Group 0992.HK, almost 60% of their smartphone production comes from factories in Wuhan.  Drawing lessons from SARs , we are probably in the early days of the epidemic and nobody at this stage could fathom the depths of economic damage it can inflict. It took Hang Seng about 2 months to recover from SARs , it may take longer this time . If what the expert say is true , this virus will strike more fear because it is fast spreading and this  will cost many companies to suspend business which will be detrimental to the economy and the stock market. The markets in US seems immune to the virus but i believe the damage will eventually  find its way to the American shore . 

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Coronavirus Epidemic - Note to Traders

Wall Street Street has been largely immune to the China Corona virus epidemic. Perhaps because history shows it does not pay to be bearish.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 14.59% after the first occurrence of SARS back in 2002-03, based on the end of month performance for the index in April, 2003. About 12 months after that point, the broad-market benchmark was up 20.76%.

However, I think this time round it could be different. Beijing is  more important to the world economy now than in 2003, lock down to more cities, restricting movement to an unprecedented 56 million people as it rushes to build a prefabricated, 1,000-bed hospital for victims.

The ability of the virus to halt travel and harm consumption, particularly in Beijing, are some of the ways an outbreak could have economic implications that could wash up on U.S.

The fact that the coronavirus came as a full surprise, has the potential of having a major effect.

Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday it anticipated a 260,000-barrels-per-day negative shock to global oil demand on average, including a 170,000-bpd loss of jet fuel .

For me , the strategy is to Sell Now, Worry Later, while traders may not yet grasp the full impact of the coronavirus, oil bulls already wavering in their conviction, oil prices hit nine-week lows on Thursday, with U.S. crude down 9% on the year while Brent, the global crude benchmark, sunk 6%.

Stay bearish until we see the cases of people infected start decreasing.

This coronavirus epidemic could turn out to be a Black Swan event.

Holding some gold as a defensive hedge could be a good idea.

Have a blessed and happy CNY!

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Thank you for your support!

My heartfelt thanks to everyone who have supported and journeyed with me for yet another year. The success of RHO intra-day index trading signal was a significant milestone in my life. I am especially heartened because it has helped many retail traders with limited capital to make an income. The RHO signal was special because it is probably the only trading signal in the world that gives live calls for major global stock indices on a intra-day basis. Day trading is the most challenging type of trading traders face today and RHO signals has successfully and consistently provided good wins. I am committed to helping retail traders gain an edge over the market. This year, I forward to launching the RHO Swing and RHO Quick Win signals (a very short term trade signal) for stocks. This is something I have been working with my team for the last 3 years. For those who are current running this race with me, please stay with me, the best is yet to be! I wish everyone a great 2020 with many blessings!

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Intra Day Trading with RHO Signals

Intra-day trading is challenging, but with a system to track your positions for you, it can be more efficient, and profitable!

Last night our system triggered two trades for Dow Jones, yielding 450 points profit intra-day.

Today, our system managed to catch Hang Seng Index at the peak, yielding approximately 405 points intra-day.

To experience a more systematic way of trading, go to www.tradingkungfu.com/keylevels.

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Broadway - Exhaustion Bar Predicted Peak

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Gold - A New Bull Cycle Has Just Begun

Gold - When Gold broke above 1340 in Jun 19 , i declared a New Gold bull cycle has started . After Gold shot pass 1340 i predicted on my blog that it will hit a high of 1550 in Sep 19.  Yesterday Gold prices surpassed the target to close at a 6 years high of 1588. I believe the metal is  in the cusp of early New Bull cycle and there is more room to run. If Gold can stay above 1588, the next target will be 1654 and to complete this cycle the metal will have to achieve the 1704 target

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Broadway Industrial - Signs of Exhaustion

On 27 January, I cautioned that Broadway Industrial Group's recent rally may be running out of steam at 0.15. This morning it fell to a low of 0.127. This is a proprietary trading signal that I have been using to spot market top and bottom and it has worked so well with Broadway Industrial Group.

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SGX Lunchtime Seminar

I will be speaking at SGX lunchtime seminar next Monday, 6 Jan 2020, hope to see you there! https://www.sgxacademy.com/event/live-trading-hour-serving-up-opportunities-at-lunchtime-5/

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Thomson Medical- Trend and Volume Breakout

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McKesson - Legal Troubles

Pharmaceutical distributor McKesson (NYSE: MCK) remains in the spotlight for its role in the opioid epidemic. Earlier this month, McKesson agreed to settle a lawsuit with the state of West Virginia for $37 million. The lawsuit claimed that the company flooded the market with highly addictive narcotics and misled the public. This is just one of a multitude of settlements we expect McKesson to pay going forward. McKesson estimates opioid litigation alone will cost it $100 million in 2019 and $150 million per year starting in 2020. This litigation will only grow from here.

First posted on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/groups/rhosignals/

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Testimonials from Students of Robin's Trading Course (Nov 2019)

Last week, we concluded our final 6 days intensive trading course for 2019! Through 3 weeks of the course, some of the participants have managed to profit from the trade plans they did together in the class and earned back their course fees. Hope to see you at the next intake!

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S&P 500 - Flashing Red

S&P 500 could have topped out and could be heading for a huge correction.

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SGX – Breaking Out Of the Range

• Recent price action triggers a bullish implication of a multi year basing pattern and breaking out of the 2016-2018 trading range between 6.80 to 7.70 adds more evidence to the upswing cycle.
• Breaking above resistances at 8.50 and 8.80 will set the stock for another swing up to its next upside target at 9.60.
• Staying firmly above its 200 days moving average since early 2019 confirms the uptrend is intact.

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UOB - Trading within a Range

• UOB is trading between the range 24.30 to 27.00. After touching 27.00 level in early November it has retraced to its 200-day MA support level.
  
• The current pullback could continue towards the next support at 25.4.
  
• A break below 25.40 could trigger a downward move toward 24.30 which will offer an opportunity to accumulate new long position in anticipation of a rebound.

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PetroChina – Downtrend Intact

• PetroChina is still a significant underperformer within the China A50 index stocks as price action maintains a series of lower highs that has formed since November 2018.
  
• Today it broke its 3.70 support and if it stays below this level, it could test the next support at 3.44 in the short term.
  
• It trades significantly below its 200-day MA and the longer price objective points to a target of 3.11.

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Hang Seng Index - Middle Of The Range But Expect A Corrective Pullback

• A corrective pullback is underway after bouncing off the November highs. Current resistance is capped at 7212.
• The short-term price action indicates a pullback to 26050 which coincides with the support on the long-term uptrend.
• A break below the 26000 to 26050 range would be bearish and would bring our attention to the next support at 25390.

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Straits Times Index – Losing Steam

• The FTSE STI is unable to hold above the 200-day moving average support and is showing sign of reversal to test the next support at 3142. A break below 3142 could trigger a test of the next support at 3090.
  
• The STI currently sits below the 200 days MA but is above its long-term trend line support. A break below the long-term trendline support could result in prolong weakness of the index.
  
• The resistance is capped at 3227.

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