In the past 120 years we have seen four major cycle peaks in the Broad Commodity Index measured by its 10-year rate-of-change indicator, with the most recent peak in 2008. This historical supercycle pattern shows that commodity prices could be sets up for the next secular bull market. Bull market in commodities are volatile, don’t expect a smooth ride.
Inflation is on the rise , question is, does the market really care. Obviously, it hasn’t cared yet. I think it’s the biggest risk. Nobody is really bother because of the belief there will be fiscal stimulus and that it’s going to be highly supportive of economic growth and the stock market.
|CEIC Data, Eurostat
|ISM, CEIC Data
Central banker indiscriminate easy money policies has flooded the world with fiat money with Federal debts held by pubic equivalent to world war 2 levels . We are in the midst of the largest monetary experiment in human history, with no foreseeable end. Governments worldwide are adopting quantitative easing policies while simultaneously running progressively larger deficits on top of increasingly untenable debt levels. Considering that 25% of all US dollars ever created were made in 2020, bitcoin could also act as an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal irresponsibility from central banks.