Thursday, November 21, 2013

QE Taper May Come In - Minutes Of Oct FOMC

The Market was spooked by FOMC minutes that Fed Reserve official still expect to start cutting back on the US $85bn bond buying programme. There is remote possibility that tapering will happen this year for the following reasons 1.There is no FOMC in Nov and the next FOMC is on 17-18 Dec. 2.Fed is not likely to taper while Bernanke is still in charge till 31 Jan 2014. He chairs his last FOMC in Dec meeting. 3.US debt ceiling due for another round of negotiation in Jan 2014, too close to taper. The earliest window of tapering could be in Mar 2014 when Yellen takes over. The key risk remains in more positive economic data which could cause the 10 Yr US treasury to shoot pass 3 pct (the last high) and cause the market to tank. Another important event to watch is tonight's (21 Nov) US Senate Banking Committee vote on the nomination of Yellen to be Fed Chairman. Yellen needs majority vote to become the 1st woman to lead the Fed.
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