Monday, August 30, 2021

China Internet Sector - Time For Bottom Fishing ?

China internet vs US internet, tales of 2 market . The KraneShares China Internet ETF (KWEB US) vs the US Internet ETF (FDN US) divergence is the biggest since 2016 exceeding even the last significant divergence in 2018.  Just looking for a rebound in KWEB to its 50-day MA would imply 15% upside and a move back to its 200-day MA would imply 49% upside. (JD US) and Netease (Ntes) display the clearest evidence of stability, bottoming price action and relative strength amongst the china internet stocks following the decline off the February highs and are presented as preferred buys.

 With such unprecedented divergence some analyst are saying the Chinese internet sector is undervalue but is it time for investors to start ploughing into the market? President Xi Jinping’s

new slogan of “Common Prosperity For All” is throwing into question what new regulation will China add to achieve equal wealth distribution and Xi’s calls for higher taxation

has raised concerned making money  could  be politically sensitive. Internet companies, which have been designated as so-called “key software enterprises” (a category including Alibaba

and Tencent), have enjoyed beneficial corporate tax rates of 10% since 2008. Other companies pay a rate of 25%. There is a strong possibility that China Internet companies honeymoon period of 10% taxation may sooner than later be over. As long as investors fear that the China’s regulators are not finish with new requlations  the China internet will need to wait a little longer before bottoming out. September being a traditionally weak month for emerging markets does not support a reversal of fortune in this sector. I believe the seasonal factor points to a Oct – Nov rebound.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

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