Gold

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Commodity Equities Index

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U.S. factories ramped up activity in September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  national factory activity rose to 51.5 from 49.4 the prior month, beating analyst expectations in a Reuters poll,  and China's manufacturing sector expanded again in September, the  Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.4 in September. A reading above 50.0 shows growth on a monthly basis. The commodity index has also rebounded 30% from Jan 16 low. OPEC cutting oil output. All these is fueling speculation that the Global Economy could finally be recovering.

Traders are piling into commodity and energy related stocks. On the local stock market, stocks like Nobles, Geo Energy, Alliance Mineral , ISR Capital etc are leading the way. This bullish trend is likely to continue all the way to the US Election in November.

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M1

Unusual strength in a weak market and on a day when other telcos stock are weak. Is  Keppel T and T strenght and massive volume today a sign that an M and A is brewing? Keppel T and T owns a 19% stake in M1. If Keppel Corp unload M1 Keppel T & T shareholders will be a happy lot!

Near term support at 2.38 resistance at 2.45 and 2.52 respectively.

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Ezra

Dash for Trash! Opec deal to cut oil supply brought many bulls into Ezra believing that oil prices has bottomed. Oil rebound will not solved Ezra deep seated debt problem. Ezra's bulls is caught will massive volume yesterday and the unwinding of long position next week may leave many bulls wounded. Strong resistance remained at 0.06 but for the short term it is going to test 0.054 level. If not support at 0.054, it should retest the 0.049 level.

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Hang Seng Index

Struggling to hold above the Trendline support and the 25 days MA. Its has been holding above these levels for the past 3 months. Any break below these levels could be a signal of trend reversal! The China Market could be very quiet and next  week as the Chinese enters their week long Golden Week holidays.

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NeraTel

The special dividend worth waiting! Made gains of $71.5m from sales of its POS business. It should announce a special dividend of about 12 to 16c soon. This blog believes the stock could rally to 0.81 on expectation of the special dividend play. Strong support at 0.73.

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Watch The Presidential Debate `LIVE' Tomorrow from 0930 to 1030

Watch it live tomorrow from 0930 to 1030 on Channel News Asia , Youtube, Fox, ABC, CNN etc…

Tomorrow’s  event will be screen `Live’ during Asian trading hours , the outcome of the debate will determine the market direction especially the US market when it opens for trading at 9.30 pm.

Trump and Clinton are currently running neck to neck at the polls. Savvy traders will make analysis during the debate and trade the market before the official polls are out!

Trump leads = Market Down /  Clinton Leads = Market Rebound. This blog put its money on The Trumpet!

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STI Relative Performance

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The Week Ahead - Market Moving Events - Oil Producer Meeting and US Presidential Debate

Major Oil Producer Informal Meeting In Algeria
The world's biggest oil producers  led by Saudi Arabia and non-cartel members headed by Russia  will meets  in Algeria next week from 26 – 28 Sep   to negotiate an oil production freeze in order to stabilize prices. While many of such meetings previously had disappointed, this time round looks promising, the most  compelling reason to reach a collective agreement this blog believe is that many of the biggest  producers are close to producing at maximum capacity and  there is little  to lose by agreeing to cap output at current levels. Even more compelling  is Saudi’s planto issue debts worth 15 billion  on the international market next month for the first time and by lifting oil prices they hope to give to market more confident that things are looking up.

US Presidential Debate
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump meets on 26 Sep for the 2016 US presidential election debate which we be the  most-watched US presidential debate in history. While Clinton now holds a the marginal lead on national polls ,  the race too close to call.  If any one candidate gain more than 2-3% lead after the debate,  history shows the candidate is likely to win the election causing the market to go into wild gyration. If Donald Trumps leads after the debate stock market will colapse and  Gold will surge. This blog believes Trump could make Clinton look like a little girl judging by is oratory credential. This blog stay cautious ahead of the event.

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Gold

Its about time for the next leg up! After reaching a high of 1375, this blog have a retracement target on the tradeplan of 1310 which was hit today. This blog has been long term bullish on Gold , believe that current correction is only a pullback in a cyclical Bull Trend. Gold could be headed for its first resistance at 1345 and will eventually hit its last high at 1375.

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Best World

On 8 Sep , this blog said that its time for this stock to correct. Today we saw a significant fall will a high volume. It is heading for its next support at 1.48 and will eventually hit its medium term target of 1.27 before rebounding.

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Best World

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Singpost

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Singpost

Singpost rebounded to 1.465 today after Maybank KE report  TP raised 37%  to SGD1.77.  The stock should head to 1.48 to 1.50 level in the short term. I the price can stay above 1.50 we could expect further upside at 1.555.

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Big Week Ahead - FOMC and BOJ Meets To Set Direction For Monetary Policies

The markets continues to gyrated with to every Fed official speech. We will know Fed decision on 21 Sep morning and the outcome of BOJ meeting in the afternoon. Odds of Fed raising rates dipped to 18% before FOMC meets next week after retail sales disappoint and former US Treasury Secretary declaring that there is no compelling case for Sep rate hike. What the Bank of Japan is going to announce, be it more easing or more tightening, is anybody’s guess. The uncertainty is creating a potentially extremely perilous situation for investors and traders. Since Fed is going to announce first on 21 Sep morning and BOJ later in the afternoon BOJ may take the queue from Fed.after the disastrous response to the Negative Interest rate  policy announced at the end of January, this blog do not believe Kuroda will further expand on this policy

Some of the recent speeches made by Kuroda also signal that  Kuroda would not implement more NIRP, however he might introduce something to replace it. He could favour monetary policy and fiscal policy in terms of the monetisation of infrastructure stimulus.

Let's wait on  the central bankers to set the macro monetary direction before deciding on the next move!

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US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

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Yangzijiang

Attempted rebound failed. Trade below crucial support 0.76. Looks likely to head for 0.70

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Yangzijiang

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STI Trade Plan

Last Friday (9 Sep), this blog turned bearish on STI when it could not hold above 2880,a significant support. This blog establish the first retacement target at 2826 which was achieved today. Going forward STI is expected to be weak and could test the 2793  and 2743 support levels subsequently. STI will continue to trade rangebound and the key levels are stipulated in the tradeplan on the chart. 

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STI

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Hang Seng Index

While most analyst were calling a buy on Hong Kong stocks last friday (9 sep) this blog saw the index hitting its target on the trade plan. The explosion of voulme last friday was a further confirmation the index could have peaked. Although HSI closed today near its support, the price action suggest the index is poised to break lower to 23000 and 22800 respectively

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Hang Seng Index

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Master The Market With Price an Volume Technique Course in August 2016 - Students' video Testimonial

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWME4CsInhs

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US 10 Year Treasury Yield

It has been climbing up from a low of 1.36% to recent high of 1.63%. The short term key resistance is 1.63%. A break above this level could cause a surge in USD and correspondingly weakness in emerging markets and commodities. This blog thinks there will be a likely breakout above 1.70% causing a correction in global markets in the weeks ahead.

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US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

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STI INDEX

It took 3 months for STI to gather enough strength to break above the 2881 level on 6 Sep and broke below it within 3 days. The price action looks rather bearish, the market is expected to be weak next week. Could could test next support at 2852 and 2826.

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STI

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Best World - Time to Pull Back

All good things must come to an end ! Time for correction. Traders piled into this stock lured by 1 for 4 bonus issue. Now that the Bonus Issue is over there is no near term catalyst until the Quarter earnings result in 3 months time. When the bonus issue scrips is credited there will be more supply in the market  putting more selling pressure . It is heading for its next crucial support at 1.52, any break below this level will see the stock going down to 1.38 and 1.29 respectively. Key resistance is at 1.61. Shorts should stop loss above this level

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Best World

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Market Moving Event In September

Sept. 8, 2016 ECB meeting
The bank’s 25-member governing council of ECB,  headed by Draghi, decides interest rate benchmarks and other monetary policy steps for the 19 countries that use the euro currency, when it meets Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016 in Frankfurt.

Sept. 20-21 Federal Open Market Committee
Markets are betting the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its September meeting it meets Sept. 20-21.

On September 26-28, International Energy Forum (IEF)
Representatives of 73 member states of the International Energy Forum (IEF) are set to meet in the Algerian capital to discuss oil-related issues. OPEC members are expected to hold informal consultations on the sidelines of the IEF summit to discuss ways to stabilise oil prices.

Saudi and Russia has expressed willingness to cut or freeze oil production. Oil could jump $10 or more on any news of production cut.

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Expectation of a Crude Production Cut Could Spark A Short Covering Rally

Oil producers will discuss a potential freeze on production  again at an informal  meeting in Sept. 26-28  in Algeria. Last week, The Russian President Putin told Bloomberg it would be the right decision to strike an agreement between oil exporters to support the market. Traders remember how the  last oil exporter meeting in Doha failed to find an agreement causing oil prices to correct down sharply, hence  less expectation this round.

This blog believes that this specially arranged meeting could surprise with a decision to freeze or cut production, because most of the oil major exporters are already producing at maximum capacity. A surprise decision could spark a short covering rally that could cause oil prices to rise at least another $10 to $54.

At the meantime the downside is supported  by expectation of a cut at Algeria. This blog is bullish on oil for the next 2 weeks.

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Gold

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VIX Calm and Quiet

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Yangzijiang

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Market outlook for the week ahead

Market direction this week become clearer after Fed Chairman Yellen hint of rate hike this year! Until release of next job numbers this Friday equities will continue to build in expectations of a rate hike. Current fed fund rate only building in a 40 pct chance of rate hike which means it's not fully priced in! The macro direction going forward till this Friday will be a strong Usd , correction of yield stocks like reits and telcos and a weakening Asian market driven by fear of weakening currencies and the increased burden of usd debts. Reits esp suntec REIT, capital mall trust, CDL trust could be affected by spread of Zika virus and the onset of haze could put a dampener on tourism and hospitality related stocks !

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Sembmarine

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China Aviation Oil

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Dax

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Hang Seng Index

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Robin's Master The Market Course - August 2016

Course Dates: 24, 25, 29, 30, 31 August 2016
Live Trading: 2 Sept 2016
Contact Cyberquote Phone: 65050199 to register

http://www.cqft.sg/master-the-markets-mtm/

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Crude Oil

Oil prices continued to rally on expectations that OPEC and other  producers will agree to freeze production at an meeting in Algeria next month at the International Energy Forum on September 26-28. Saudi minister expressed it’s intent to discuss the current market condition and explore ways to support prices. Though crude oil supplies are exceeding recent estimates by a wider margin, traders are currently focusing on potential freeze talks. From the chart, WTI Crude could rally towards $48.50 before retreating.

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Jumbo

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Lesson Thai Bev Shorter Consolidation

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Easy money policies , Central Bankers prevail for now!

The central bankers policies encourage people to spend no save but the problem now is the policies are not working , people are not spending resulting in deflation and recession instead of growth and inflation . The easy money has created mountain of debts and inflated assets. The central bank has only one way out , they need to 'inflate all the debts away' . If the money printing experiment fail  , asset prices will ballooned to ridiculous levels, the greater fool stops buying, bubbles burst, and debts cannot be paid back, business fail, unemployment climb.

Actually deflation is not a big problem, rather central bank sponsored inflation promoting debts and asset bubbles post the greatest risk if confidence in central bankers policies fails.

In the end, if these central bankers cannot find a solution to the current economic malaise,  there have only one solution left and that is to let the BUST play out!

Lately these legendary  billionaire gurus have been making bearish bets and sell calls:

·         Stan Druckenmiller , May 4 “Get out of the stock market

·         George Soros (June 9, Wall Street Journal): sold stocks and bought Puts on S & P

·         Carl Icahn (June 9, CNBC): “Bubbles”

·         Jeff Gundlach (July 29 interview with Reuters): “Sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”

·         Bill Gross (in his August investment outlook): “I don’t like bonds; I don’t like most stocks”

These big guys have got it wrong so far but you don’t want to betting against these markets gurus for too long because they will eventually be right someday!

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GLP

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Yangzijiang

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CNMC

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First Resource - Lesson Price And Volume Divergence

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Lunch Meeting with Mike Bellafiore

Great to meet up my good friend Mike Bellafiore for lunch on 29 July again. Mike is here as one of the Key Note speaker of Singapore Investment Fair.

He is the co-founded of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City, and SMBU, its trader education company. He is the author of the “trading classic” One Good Trade and The PlayBook. 

I know Mike as a great trader, a passionate  trainer, and humble man who owns a big business. Always learning talking to this guy!

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Gold

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DBS - Bulls are trapped

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Genting SP

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Singapore Banks

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Robin Won All 4 CFDs Top Awards - Stock Index Trading, Singapore Stocks, Hongkong Stocks and Phillip Top CFD Trading Representative for 2015

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Sembmarine

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Wilmar

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Market Awaits Draghi, Yellen and Kuroda`s Monetary Policies

The stock market is once again rallying on expectation of monetary stimulus from ECB president Draghi on 21 July (Thursday) and hyped-up speculation that BOJ Kuroda will resort to using what's called "helicopter money" , a convergence of unconventional monetary policy and fiscal policy , the monetisation of infrastructure stimulus that will likely take the form of big spending package at the next Bank of Japan policy meeting scheduled for 28-29 July.Ben Bernake has been in Tokyo 2 weeks ago and reportedly had lunch with Kuroda, followed by a meeting with Abe. These meetings has created much speculation of another `Bazooka` monetary stimulus in the offing.

Fed FOMC meeting scheduled from 26 – 27 July is not expected to raised interest rate, Yellen interest rates guidance into the next 6 months could turn the tide.

With this backdrop, the market is not expected to experience a steep correction until all the central bankers have their say. After the July month end, traders should be ready for a sharp correction in August.

Like the BREXT all over again its going to be `Sell On News’ with so much priced into the expectation of Central Bankers monetary stimulus this month.

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S&P - Time to be Cautious !

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Keppel Corp 2Q Result due on 21st July could surprise on the downside !

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Quotable Quotes

“Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity.” - Howard Marks

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China A50 Index

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GLP

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Dow

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Crude oil

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Sembmarine

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Gold

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Hang Seng Index

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