News of US and North Korea Summit supports the market - DLC Webcast 28 May 2018

In this week's webcast, Robin shares his global market outlook, as well as trade plans for Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Index DLC.

You may catch the webcast here:

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Gold - Ripe For A Rebound!

Gold - Could Be Ripe For A Rebound to 1308 and  if able to stay above 1308 it may head for 1320!

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China Sunsine - Tailwinds May Be Fading!

China SunSine -  One of the best performing stock in the last 12 months rising from 0.60 to 1.63 on the back of strong demand from the automobile industry for its rubber acelerator. This blog believes that with rising oil prices the headwinds may be growing. Over the last 3 years cheap oil has rejuvenated its competitive position, leading to peak margin amid a healthy macro economic environment.  Raw material cost accounted for 80-85% of the cost of sales. Key raw material are made from crude oil by product such as benzene. Higher cost of raw material will eat into  profit. Generally . selling prices and cost of sales per tonne tracks the crude oil subject to a lag of one month. On the chart a break below support of 1.47 and 1.44 will trigger a downward slide down to 1.37 and 1.26.

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[Video] Highlights of 1st DLC Meetup on 5 May 2018

Here are the highlights of our 1st DLC Meetup on 5th May 2018. Enjoy the video!

The Direct Leverage Certificate is an innovative new product that started trading on the Singapore Exchange last year. More and more traders are starting to trade the DLC as it offers the liquidity, volatility and leverage traders need to excel in the market. To find out more, join us for our next monthly DLC meet up, details below.

Next DLC Meetup:

Date: 16 June 2018, Saturday

Time: 9am-12noon

Venue: SGX Auditorium

Registration: https://www.tradingkungfu.com/dlcmeetup

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Why Major Stock Markets Seems Calm In the Face Of US Ten Years Treasuries breaking above at the significant 3 % level!

U.S. bond yields broke above the significant 3%  and above the 30 years downtrend channel ,  the highest in seven years,   oil is up to $80 a barrel and USD  dollar rallying  causing emerging markets to post the most significant correction in recent memory and major stock  market looks unfazed: .   What are the  possible reasons ?  The much anticpated 3 percent Treasury yield was already priced in, expectation of US. tax cuts boosting earnings and share buybacks, , a sense a , and a belief that the turmoil in the emerging world is isolated to highly leverage countries.

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US 10 Years Treasury Yield - Breaking Upwards After 30 years

After US 10 Years Treasury Broke Above the 30 Years  Downtrend – Get Ready For A Prolong Rise In Interest Rates

The U.S. bond market is at a turning point , Treasury 10-year yield jumped to the highest since 2011, making a convincing break above 3 percent, paving the way for a more prolonged rise in U.S. borrowing cost, after release of solid U.S. retail sales data with a strong upward .The  market bets that the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates three more times in 2018. Treasuries have been under pressure from a flood of new issuance as the US budget deficits widen. And inflation expectations are hovering near the highest since 2014, after years of doubts about whether prices and wages would increase. The dollar rallied,  pushing it to its highest level this year and  for the first time in a decade. Trillions of dollars of loans around the world, especially in emerging markets, are tied to U.S. yields and the dollar. The US 10 Years Treasury broke above the 25 years downtrend channel , and to many chart follower marks  a major reversal of trend and  cash is winning back it’s appeal .

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Best World - Prediction on 17 Apr that price will fall from 1.61 to 1.35 was spot on! The price levels unfolded like clockwork!

 Best World - 18  Apr Prediction that Best World will fall from 1.60 to 1.35 was Spot On . The precision  a of  Price Action Tradeplan  went like clock work The prediction of how the price level will play out from 1.61 to 1.35 was  amazingly  accurate. The predited  support/resistance price level  unfolded like clockwork.

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S & P - Breaking Out of the Descending Trendline on the Triangle Pattern is a Bullish Signal! Could it be a false break?

S&P - While breaking  above the ascending triangle pattern is a bullish signal  , but  the similiarity of the 2 trend cycle shown in the chart looks presents the possibility of a false break out. For the short term 2700 remains a good support and 2740 a strong resistance. Whatever the outcome, its better to watch and react to the unfolding price action!

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Dow Jones - The Fight Is On!

DOW - The Bull and Bear In Trench Warfare

The Bull and Bears have been engaging  in a battle for control in the traingular arena. The Dow has rebounded from the ascending trendline numerous time since Feb 18, staying above the 200 days MA. The direction it breaks will set the tone for the next major move, Traders are better off not trying to impose thier view on the market, listen carefully to what the price action tell you and wait patiently for the break. This blog has been calling for the end of the bull market since Feb and naturally expects the Dow to break to the downside . A break below this ascending triangle could be long term bearish and could drive it to its next immediate support at 22650

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ST Engineering - Due For A rebound and Coming 1Q Results Looks Good

ST Engineering - 1Q18 earnings due this Friday(am). Company guided for smart city and marine revenue to double over the next few years. Recent contract wins and global expansion plan if executed well could turn it into a growth company. Technically  it has retraced to a key support level at 3.48. This blog expect 1Q result to be good given the positive guidance last quarter. Could rise to 3.60 in the short term on  positive results

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DBS - Could have peaked at 31.20. Time To Be Cautious!

DBS - This tradeplan is showing DBS could have peaked at 31.25 and is poised to retrace to 30.00, 28.80 and 27.00

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DLC Traders Interest Group Meet Up - 5 May 18

I would like to invite everyone to join me on the 5 May, Saturday afternoon for the DLC (Direct Leverage Certificates) event at SGX. I will be sharing with everyone on the trading opportunity DLC offers in spite of the quiet market in the Singapore Market. I will also be sharing how you could follow my DLC trades. 

The DLC tracks the Hang Seng index. Being the most volatile index in the world, the Hang Seng Index offers trading opportunities for short and long term. I will be giving an short outlook of the China market. 

We have also catered afternoon tea for everyone during the break . Please register and join me next Saturday. I believe this event will bring a new angle and an alternative to trading and Investment in the Singapore market.


Robin Ho

5 May 2018, Saturday 
1pm - 4pm
SGX Auditorium

Invite your friends and sign up here:

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Dow Jones - Showing symptom of Bear market?

Has the Dow peaked for this cycle?  Trading volume has been declining on counter rallies versus rising volume when the market is rising. This is one of the symptom of a Bear Market.

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SOX (US Semi-Conductor Index) - The chart could signal the bull run in the Semi-Conductor sector is over

SOX - US Semi-Conductor Index  - A false breakout could eventually result in a Double Top formation which is a major reversal signal to many chart follower. This chart could signal the bull market for the semi-conductor sector has ended!

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High Probability DLC Trading Strategies with Mr Robin Ho - DLC Interest Group Meetup

High Probability DLC Trading Strategies with Mr Robin Ho Come join us at the Inaugural Singapore Daily Leverage Certificates (DLC) Interest Group Meetup! At this session, you can learn from one of the most active and successful traders in Phillip Securities, Mr Robin Ho, as he shares how he uses his proprietary trading system to make high probability trades on the DLCs. Using his trading system right after its launch SGX in July 2017, Robin made more than S$30K in one month, trading the DLCs. Event Details Date and Time:  5th May 2018 (Saturday) 1:00pm - 4:00pm Venue:  SGX Centre 1 - Auditorium 2 Shenton Way, Singapore 068804 Register Now - Seats are Limited! About Mr Robin Ho Mr Robin Ho became a well sought after speaker after turning $100K into $2 million dollars in 15 months during the global financial crisis in 2008, predicting correcting the market peak in 2007. Every Monday, Société Générale will feature Robin in their weekly Hang Seng Market Outlook webcast, where he will share his views and strategies on trading the DLCs. Over the years, Robin has taught and mentored thousands of professional traders. He has also developed his proprietary trading system that focuses on Price Action which he believes is the answer to the volatile market today. Robin has been conducting his flagship Master The Markets (MTM) course with CyberQuote since 2004, and appointed as SGX accredited trainer since 2012. What You Can Learn At This Event During this session, Robin will be sharing with us on two topics: Topic 1: The Outlook of Hong Kong and Singapore Market The increase in volatility seen in the Dow Jones recently spells exciting times ahead, especially for short term traders.  But how will this impact the Asian markets?   Find out more as Robin shares his thoughts on the outlook of the markets closer to home. Topic 2: High Probability Trading Strategy Capturing the Potential Movement of HSI and SIMSCI using DLCs DLCs are great for short term traders who want to leverage their trades, but how do you make use of them to make high probability trades? Learn how Robin uses the DLCs maximise his returns with his trading strategy. We also have representatives from Société Générale and Phillip Securities to explain more and answer any questions you may have about this newly launched financial instrument in SGX, and also a demo session by on how to go about trading the DLCs from within the POEMS trading platform. So whether you are an active trader looking for opportunities to leverage your trades, or just curious to find out more about DLCs, come join us on the 5th May 2018! Event Details Date and Time:  5th May 2018 (Saturday) 1:00pm - 4:00pm Venue:  SGX Centre 1 - Auditorium 2 Shenton Way, Singapore 068804 Register Now - Seats are Limited!

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

The Yield Curve is Flattening, why should investors be worried?

The Yield Curve is Flattening, why should investors be  worried?

The US 2 Year Treasury Yields is at the highest since 2008 at 2.42% and its spread on the 10 year Treasury Yields is narrowing resulting in a flat yield curve. The last time this happened  in 2006 was followed by the Global Financial Crisis in 2007.

This blog view remains that the more the Fed raises rates from here, the more likely the yield

curve is to flatten. Indeed, after having flattened significantly last year, in terms of the spread

between the two-year Treasury and the 10-year, the yield curve began to flatten again towards the

end of last quarter.  This is primarily because short-term rates have continued to rise based on rising Fed tightening expectations.

10-year Treasury bond yield is currently at 2.92 is threatening to reach the year high of 2.95 and could set the stage to take the 3% mark which would  signal to many chartist  the end of the disinflationary era which commenced in the early 1980s and which has, for the most part, proved extremely positive for the stock market. When inflation returns, stock would suffer a massive derating in terms of price earnings ratios as a result higher real interest rates.

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Best World - Fundamentals are Good but Price Action Shows Otherwise

Best World - Result due in  early May with analyst expecting upbeat results, management guided 20% growth target for 2018 backed by free cash flow yield of 6% and  trading cum dividend 2.6c.  All these looks rosy but today's price action suggest Big Boys could have distributed in March/April . Could rebound to 1.65 from current price 1.59 . If prices stay below 1.61 , it could go down to its next support at 1.55. A break below 1.55 could trigger a sell down to 1.46 and 1.35

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KSH - A Rebound Is On The Cards! Any News of the launch of Gaobedian project could revive the stock!

KSH - A rebound is on the cards! The company is likely to launch phase 1 of the Gaobedian Project this year after a pre-sales permit is obtained. The stock rallied last year on the potential wind fall from its 22.5% owned Gaobedian project located near the SEZ. The rally fizzled away as the market was uncertain of the timing of the launch of the project rumoured to be targeting up to Rmb 20,000psm. This theme could be played up again on any news of the project launch. On the Chart it could have seen its near term bottom at 0.61 and is due for a rebound to  resistance at 0.70 , 0.72 and 0.76

KSH

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Dow Jones - Why I would be concern if it falls below the 200 Days Moving Average !

The 200 Days Moving  Average is considered a key indicator by traders and market analysts for determining the overall long term trend. The Dow has not broken the 100 days MA since 10 Nov 2016 and the 200 day MA since 16 Mar 2015. The last time Dow broke the 200 Days MA was on 20 Aug 2015 and 6 Jan 2016 and on both it loss 10 percent . The Dow chart has not look this bearish for a long time falling from Jan  high of 26600 to Feb low of  23290. The current obvious price action of consecutive swing points registering lower lows are indications of more weakness ahead. The current 20 Days MA sits on the 23476 level and if history repeats we could see a 10 percent drop to 21128. My charts are indicating the immediate support of the Dow at 23000 and 21680 respectively in the event the 200 Days MA is breached.

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Rocky Week Ahead - These are the Big Events That Could rock the stock market

China said it was fully prepared to respond with a "fierce counter strike" to Trump’s  threat for $100 billion more in tariffs on Chinese imports. The week ahead promised to be high stakes with high expectations as earnings season heats up. Traders are expecting one of the best US quarterly  earnings season boasted by the implementation of  the  reformed US Tax to show its biggest quarterly profit growth in seven years.  The corporate reporting kicks off in earnest on Thursday and Friday with reports from several large financial institutions including BlackRock and JP Morgan.The fragile market could be  further upset  by disappointments . The most volatile U.S. stock market in two years will meet 3 major test in the coming weeks as first-quarter earnings pour in, announcements of the outcome of NAFTA renegotiation when Trump meets Mexico President and Canadian PM at the end of the week and Chinese President Xi speech on Tuesday for any reference to the Trade war .  

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