Monday, March 15, 2021

JD.com (9618.HK) Bearish price action

 


JD.com is exhibiting a short-term bearish price action and is trading below its 100-MA (347) today.

Its current support is at 323, could correct to support levels of 300 and 281 in the short term from its current price of 323.

Stop loss at 358.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, March 10, 2021

DBS (D05.SI) Bearish Price Action Today

 


After a week of bullish uptrend, the stock is exhibiting a short-term bearish price action today.

Resistance is capped at 28.60, could correct to support levels of 27.33 and 26.49 in the short term from its current price of 27.85.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Monday, March 8, 2021

My chart on UST10 Year Treasury is pointing to a target of 2.5% from the current 1.6% (could potentially spark off a valuation reset in equities)

 


UST10 Year Treasury – The chart is pointing to a target of 2.5% and the uptrend has started and it is resisted currently at 1.6%, it should break above the 1.6% mark to ahead for the 2.00% level.

The key resistance remains at 2.50% and I expect the Fed will not tolerate rates above 2.5%. This could be the level the Fed will act to bring the long term yield down. The impending yield increase will inevitably result in valuation reset in equities especially the Tech stocks.

The IIF recently released its Global Debt Monitor which reported that total global debt had reached US$280 trillion and the worldwide debt-to-GDP ratio is now at 355%. How this will ever be repaid I have no idea. How this will be serviced if interest rates were to rise is another matter to ponder. debt servicing costs would increase by several trillion dollars should average interest rates simply rise to pre-GFC levels …..more money printing to get out of the debt hole?  US personal savings rate has now risen to 20.5% from 13% with the potential to rise even more if biden 1.9 trillion stimulus reaches the US household. The stage will be set for a consumer spending  boom , all these are pointing to higher rates and inflation.


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China Construction Bank (0939.HK) Bullish Price Action, More Potential Upside.

 


China Construction Bank (0939.HK) broke out from its recent year high of 6.55 trading at a high of 6.65 today (08 March 2021) before retracing to 6.59. 

It is heading towards testing my first target at 6.66 and if it breaks out further it could be heading towards my second target at 6.84.

If prices break below 6.30, the trade plan is not valid anymore.


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Friday, March 5, 2021

Nasdaq-100 broke down from its upper trend channel

 

Nasdaq-100 broke down from its upper trend channel

Prices broke down from the uptrend today, it also broke below the 50 days moving average.

Next target 12,080 and if 12,080 is breached if could head to 11,135 and 10,785.
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Monday, March 1, 2021

China BlueChem (3983.HK) – More Potential Upside Ahead.

 


The fundamentals of China BlueChem (3983.HK) looks promising with Crop price at 7-year high, driving fertilizer demand and global tight supply of urea. Domestic urea price rose Renminbi 200/ton MoM to Renminbi 2,100/ton in early-Feb, due to spike in global pricing (up more than 30% since end of 2020).

 

The stock is poised to benefit from the year on year jump in urea given its relatively stable natural gas cost under long-term contracts.

 

Looking at the technicals, the stock has broken out from its long-term downtrend, trading at a day-high of 2.12 (at the point of this write up) today and its bullish chart pattern showing further potential upside.


First Target – 2.30

Second Target – 2.48

Third Target – 2.95

Stop Loss – 1.75

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Thursday, February 18, 2021

Pacific Basin 2343.HK - Provides Dry Bulk Delivery Services , A Commodity Recovery Theme Play

 


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Commodity Super Cycle That Will Last for next 7-10 Years Could Just Have Started



In the past 120 years we have seen four major cycle peaks in the Broad Commodity Index measured by its 10-year rate-of-change indicator, with the most recent peak in 2008. This historical supercycle pattern shows that commodity prices could be sets up for the next secular bull market. Bull market in commodities are volatile, don’t expect a smooth ride.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Bitcoin Hit Channel Line Chart Point At 52,600, Could Retrace In The Short Term.

 


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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Inflation on the rise

Inflation is on the rise , question is, does the market really care. Obviously, it hasn’t cared yet. I think it’s the biggest risk. Nobody is really bother because of the belief there will be fiscal stimulus and that it’s going to be highly supportive of economic growth and the stock market.

The House has just given its approval to Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus plan and when this money gets into the hands of the American people it will unleash another wave of spending spree that will cause prices of goods and services to skyrocket.
The US ISM Manufacturing Price Paid Index was up 5.8% MoM and 54% YoY in January to the highest level since April 2011 . While core inflation in the Eurozone soared to 1.4% YoY in January, way above expectations

On Wednesday (Feb 3, 2021) , the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a Treasury market metric of inflation expectations, was at 2.30, the highest since April 2013. That means market pros expect inflation to average 2.3% over the next five years. The measure compares the 5-year Treasury yield to the TIPS note of the same duration.

The market has not priced in the ballooning debts but rather the positive outcome of the relieve stimulus package.

If inflation gets too hot, that could turn into a negative for stocks, and it would crimp corporate earnings by pressuring margins

CEIC Data, Eurostat

ISM, CEIC Data


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only