JD.com is exhibiting a short-term bearish price action and
is trading below its 100-MA (347) today.
Its current support is at 323, could correct to support
levels of 300 and 281 in the short term from its current price of 323.
Stop loss at 358.
After a week of bullish uptrend, the stock is exhibiting a short-term bearish price action today.
Resistance is capped at 28.60, could correct to support
levels of 27.33 and 26.49 in the short term from its current price of 27.85.
UST10 Year Treasury – The chart is pointing to a target of
2.5% and the uptrend has started and it is resisted currently at 1.6%, it
should break above the 1.6% mark to ahead for the 2.00% level.
The key resistance remains at 2.50% and I expect the Fed
will not tolerate rates above 2.5%. This could be the level the Fed will act to
bring the long term yield down. The impending yield increase will inevitably
result in valuation reset in equities especially the Tech stocks.
The IIF recently released its Global Debt
Monitor which reported that total global debt had reached US$280 trillion and
the worldwide debt-to-GDP ratio is now at 355%. How this will ever be repaid I
have no idea. How this will be serviced if interest rates were to rise is
another matter to ponder. debt servicing costs would increase by several
trillion dollars should average interest rates simply rise to pre-GFC levels
…..more money printing to get out of the debt hole? US personal savings
rate has now risen to 20.5% from 13% with the potential to rise even more if
biden 1.9 trillion stimulus reaches the US household. The stage will be set for
a consumer spending boom , all these are pointing to higher rates and
inflation.
China Construction Bank (0939.HK) broke out from its recent year high of 6.55 trading at a high of 6.65 today (08 March 2021) before retracing to 6.59.
It is heading towards testing my first target at 6.66 and
if it breaks out further it could be heading towards my second target at 6.84.
If prices break below 6.30, the trade plan is not valid
anymore.
Nasdaq-100 broke down from its upper trend channel
The fundamentals of China BlueChem (3983.HK) looks promising with Crop price at 7-year high, driving fertilizer demand and global tight supply of urea. Domestic urea price rose Renminbi 200/ton MoM to Renminbi 2,100/ton in early-Feb, due to spike in global pricing (up more than 30% since end of 2020).
The stock is poised to benefit from the year on year jump in
urea given its relatively stable natural gas cost under long-term contracts.
Looking at the technicals, the stock has broken
out from its long-term downtrend, trading at a day-high of 2.12 (at the point
of this write up) today and its bullish chart pattern showing further potential
upside.
First Target – 2.30
Second Target – 2.48
Third Target – 2.95
Stop Loss – 1.75
Inflation is on the rise , question is, does the market really care. Obviously, it hasn’t cared yet. I think it’s the biggest risk. Nobody is really bother because of the belief there will be fiscal stimulus and that it’s going to be highly supportive of economic growth and the stock market.
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| CEIC Data, Eurostat |
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| ISM, CEIC Data |
