DOW - Approaching Sell Zone .

Dow Jones - Approaching Sell Zone between 24860 and 25325. It is also approaching the 200 days Moving Average Overhead Resistance . The sell zone also marks a 60% retracement of the Dec low. This blog has maintained that the 1Q19 rally a rebound within a broader bear market . The Dow should retest its Dec low in the 2Q19.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow Jones - Showing symptom of Bear market?

Has the Dow peaked for this cycle?  Trading volume has been declining on counter rallies versus rising volume when the market is rising. This is one of the symptom of a Bear Market.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow Jones Index - History was made on 5 Feb and 6 Feb! What's does it mean for traders?

Dow Jones Index  -  History was made on  Dow 5 Feb and 6 Feb. On 5 Feb Dow recorded its worst point fall in history and on 6 Feb it recorded its heaviest trading volume . On 5 feb Dow fell 1175 pts and it also recorded widest trading range of 1592 points in history. On 6 Feb it recorded its most volatile day with record volume. What does this mean for traders? In fact these Price Action provide a significant Ceiling (resistance) and Floor (support). If prices break and stay above 25520 (ceiling/5 feb high) the bull run will likely continue and if it breaks and stay below 23728 (floor/6 feb low) a bear market or a protracted correction may  follow. It is important for traders and investors to understand these  Price Action to know whither the market is heading.

Dow

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow Jones - Key Support and Resistance Levels

Dow Jones -  Dow plunges 1175 points yesterday 5 Feb 2018, the largest single day loss in history. While the magnitude of the loss was big and percent loss is  small compared to the nearly 20,000 points gain since the bull run began in 2008. Many investors who missed the rally are already tempted to start buying. Is it time? The secret to a global stock market rebound depends on this chart. Dow at 24345 sits on the 100 days MA. The next support at the 200 days MA  is at 22800, Dow  could rebound from there but it is only a `Dead Cat` bounce. The first key level where a sustainable rebound will take place is at 21600. This is where the 2 major trend channel lines  merged.  The next to key support level are at 20700 and 19400. If a full blown market rout take place, this blog has an Conviction buy level at 17600.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Russell 2000 and Dow Diverge

Russell 2000 and Dow Diverge. Ïs it "A canary In A Coal Mine" Syndrome? The Small Caps has  started to gave way while the Big Blues are forming tops!

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

US markets celebrates new high but No Joy In STI

US Markets celebrates  new highs but no joy with STI. This week new highs in US markets have been met with a bearish divergence in the STI. In the regional markets STI and the ASX200 display the weakest technical profile. STI has broke below the 50 days MA as well as the lower boundary of the uptrend channel. The uptrend in STI that we saw since Dec 2016 is now in doubt and a break below 3200 will open the door to a downside target of 3150 and 3110 respectively. At the meantime, STI is expected  trade within the 3210 , 3225 and 3245 range. This blog will turn bullish on STI only when it breaks above 3250.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

The Bull and Bear Dilemma

Most traders already know September is a scary month for stocks because on average, it is a decided loser for the market. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has been losing an average of 0.67% for the month, and has logged more losses (38 of them) than gains (29) during that 67 year span. 

Why are investors not selling yet? The bulls are holding up the market for the most anticipated news this year, Trump’s promised US tax reform bill which is supposed to make consumers richer and US corporations more competitive and hence, "Make America Great Again". President Trump struck a deal with the Democrats to add a three month extension to the debt ceiling that which deadline was 31 Sept 2017. This could pave the way for the tax reform, which may be announced in the next few weeks. The Tax Reform is a key campaign promise of both Trump and the Republican Party.  The Republicans are also excited to push the tax bill through ahead of the congressional election in November.

Dampening this bullish mood is the the geo political tension in the Korean Penisula. North Korea is expected to conduct a missile launch over the weekend, and traders are not taking chances after the lessons learnt from last weekend North Korea nuclear test.

With US market at 9 year high and valuation in a bubble territory, the bears are looking for a correction that has eluded them for so long.

This blog believes that the conditions for a Bear market are largely in place. News of US Tax Reform could give the market a last leg up.

In the meantime, the market will remain quiet and range bound. This blog will avoid holding big overnight long or short position until news of the Tax Reform is announced. Day trade remains the most preferred strategy for now.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow - Summer Correction Could Have Just Started!

Although Dow is sitting on its 50 Days MA, the deceleration in Price/Momentum , prices reaching the upper trend channel price target and breaching its 1 year uptrend channel are ominous signs that the summer correction is on its way. Dow has initial support  between 21430 to 21520. If 21430 is breached, it could head south towards 30980 and 20780. This blog is bearish on Dow!

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

US Markets

All my charts on Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are flashing red. Its time to de-risk, the axe could fall anytime. Dow transport continues to lag Dow Industrial, a signal in Dow theory that the current rally in Dow could lose steam soon. Rusell 2000 falling behind S&P is also show a bearish divergence signal in that the big caps rally is not spill over to the small caps.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

On 12 May this blog said that Dow and Nasdaq chart has reached an inflexion point and a 20% correction could be expected. This blog believe yesterday's 372 points drop in Dow could be a start of this big correction which could take a month to pan out.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

Trump success in passing of Obamacare reform gives the market hope the tax reform will be passed more quickly and this hope has been holding up the US market. However more Fed rate hike and unwinding of central bank balance sheet posed a risk to the US market. Technically the DOW and nasdaq has hit critical chart point that historically are followed by 20% correction. The risk of holding US equities has heightened significantly in the last 2 weeks.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

A month ago this blog has warned that Dow could have peaked at 21150. On 5 Apr, this blog warned that if the crucial support at 20515 is cracked, there is a risk that Dow could fall 400 points to 20100. Yesterday, it tested its 3 months low at 20410. It could stage a minor rebound from here, but as long as it stays below 20515, there is a good chance 20100 will be tested.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

Made 5 attempts at 20725 last 1 month but failed to hold above. Next minor support is at 20617 but the important support is at 20515. If this level is broken there are only 2 clearly defined support at 20122 and 19955. This 2 supports are very far down from here and it could cause some panic in the market. Fed has turned hawkish, some Fed members even said the US markets are a overvalued in the the minutes of the FOMC. Investor's increased scepticism about Trumps's ability to implement its stimulus policies, including the most important corporate tax cut is causing concern. This poses a risk for the highly valued US market.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

On 28 Feb this blog said that Dow could be close to its peak and on 2 Mar Dow had in fact hit its highest point at 21180. Dow fell 237 pts to 20668 on Tuesday,  its biggest decline since Trump election. Going forward Dow will continue to trend downwards with supports at  20275, 20090, 19900, 19723 and 19170. Traders are beginning to doubt Trump's ability to fulfill his election promises and they will be watching Trump's attempt at congress to repeal Obamacare. Any mishaps in Obamacare repeal effort will cause more selling in the days ahead. Traders also know that the  introduction of Border Tax and Infrastructure stimulus will have to wait for the outcome  of Obamacare repeal. Traders will likely run out of patience and it could trigger more selling.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow Jones - Very close to completing its trend cycle.

The market continues to break new high with Trump's promise of tax reform and fiscal stimulus. Trump is addressing congress tomorrow at 10am Singapore time. Traders will be looking for details of his promises. If he disappoints it could trigger a much awaited correction. 

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow - Fake Breakout?

If Dow is unable to stay above 19975 tonight, traders who bet the next bull leg above 20,000 will unwind long trade and that could take the market to 19742 and 19236. For this week it is unlikely that Trump will roll out more major policies as he is busy with the fallout from his immigration policies. This blog still believe that Dow has one more melt up when Trump slashed the corporate tax from the current 36% to 15%.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow - Buy on Trump's election Sell on Inauguration?

Dow has been trading sideway as itawaits the outcome of Trump inauguration on 20 Jan. If Trump disappoint in his inauguration speech, the unwinding of crowed long trades could be fierce. A decisive break below 19730 will bearish an could take the DOW down to 19240.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

Bulls may charged until Trump Presidential inauguration on 20 Jan. US equities market is the most crowded trade now. The surge in volume is the highest n 3 years, a sign of "Peak Greed". However the end is near but not until Trump becomes President on 20 Jan. The charts are pointing to a tipping point at 20180.

For Illustration Purpose Only

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Broke new high on a highest volume in 9 months. While most chartist are bullish, this blog believes this is a topping out price action. Trade plan for Dow will be to sell below 19115 after confirmation that it broke below its crucial support at 19122. A break below 19115 could see Dow falling to next support 18850. This blog will only turn bearish when the 19122 support is breached.

For Illustration Purpose only

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Dow

Oil inspired rally failed to hold on te DOW. Investors went on a buying rampage on news of OPEC agreement to cut oil supply. The oil rally holds but DOW did not. Investors sold off towards the last hour of trade. It was a significant day because the rally came with huge volume. For now dow is capped at 19230. This blog will be bearish if dow breaks 18054. Any break below this level could take the dow to 18600. With the OPEC out of the way the market focus will shift ti the Italian Referendum.

For Illustration Purpose Only

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only