VIX Calm and Quiet

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Yangzijiang

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Market outlook for the week ahead

Market direction this week become clearer after Fed Chairman Yellen hint of rate hike this year! Until release of next job numbers this Friday equities will continue to build in expectations of a rate hike. Current fed fund rate only building in a 40 pct chance of rate hike which means it's not fully priced in! The macro direction going forward till this Friday will be a strong Usd , correction of yield stocks like reits and telcos and a weakening Asian market driven by fear of weakening currencies and the increased burden of usd debts. Reits esp suntec REIT, capital mall trust, CDL trust could be affected by spread of Zika virus and the onset of haze could put a dampener on tourism and hospitality related stocks !

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Sembmarine

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China Aviation Oil

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Dax

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Hang Seng Index

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Robin's Master The Market Course - August 2016

Course Dates: 24, 25, 29, 30, 31 August 2016
Live Trading: 2 Sept 2016
Contact Cyberquote Phone: 65050199 to register

http://www.cqft.sg/master-the-markets-mtm/

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Crude Oil

Oil prices continued to rally on expectations that OPEC and other  producers will agree to freeze production at an meeting in Algeria next month at the International Energy Forum on September 26-28. Saudi minister expressed it’s intent to discuss the current market condition and explore ways to support prices. Though crude oil supplies are exceeding recent estimates by a wider margin, traders are currently focusing on potential freeze talks. From the chart, WTI Crude could rally towards $48.50 before retreating.

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Jumbo

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Lesson Thai Bev Shorter Consolidation

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Easy money policies , Central Bankers prevail for now!

The central bankers policies encourage people to spend no save but the problem now is the policies are not working , people are not spending resulting in deflation and recession instead of growth and inflation . The easy money has created mountain of debts and inflated assets. The central bank has only one way out , they need to 'inflate all the debts away' . If the money printing experiment fail  , asset prices will ballooned to ridiculous levels, the greater fool stops buying, bubbles burst, and debts cannot be paid back, business fail, unemployment climb.

Actually deflation is not a big problem, rather central bank sponsored inflation promoting debts and asset bubbles post the greatest risk if confidence in central bankers policies fails.

In the end, if these central bankers cannot find a solution to the current economic malaise,  there have only one solution left and that is to let the BUST play out!

Lately these legendary  billionaire gurus have been making bearish bets and sell calls:

·         Stan Druckenmiller , May 4 “Get out of the stock market

·         George Soros (June 9, Wall Street Journal): sold stocks and bought Puts on S & P

·         Carl Icahn (June 9, CNBC): “Bubbles”

·         Jeff Gundlach (July 29 interview with Reuters): “Sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”

·         Bill Gross (in his August investment outlook): “I don’t like bonds; I don’t like most stocks”

These big guys have got it wrong so far but you don’t want to betting against these markets gurus for too long because they will eventually be right someday!

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GLP

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Yangzijiang

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CNMC

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First Resource - Lesson Price And Volume Divergence

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Lunch Meeting with Mike Bellafiore

Great to meet up my good friend Mike Bellafiore for lunch on 29 July again. Mike is here as one of the Key Note speaker of Singapore Investment Fair.

He is the co-founded of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City, and SMBU, its trader education company. He is the author of the “trading classic” One Good Trade and The PlayBook. 

I know Mike as a great trader, a passionate  trainer, and humble man who owns a big business. Always learning talking to this guy!

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