Friday, May 29, 2020

Predictions for S&P and Nasdaq

Last night, the market started by extending the rally from the past 2 days before turning down to erase the day's gains. Our system managed to predict the day high for S&P and Nasdaq right before the reversal! Experience systematic intra-day trading with our signals here:


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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Bitcoin - Multi-year bull has just begun

This chart shows Bitcoin multi-year mega bull has just begun. The 3 near term targets 10495, 12007, 13837 should be taken out this year and its all time high at 20000 will be within reach next year 2021. The secret to this prediction is in the Price Action... the Volume.

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Friday, May 15, 2020

Intra-Day Trading with Pin Point Precision

Dow Jones gave traders a roller coaster ride yesterday, With dismal employment data and US China trade tension casting doubts on the recovery, at one point it had fallen 1500 points from previous day's peak. We predicted the day low 22800 before the market opened, and we saw the index free falling right from the opening bell and rebounded sharply at our predicted level to stage a 1400 points come back!

To experience systematic trading with pin point precision, check out our RHO Index Key Levels signal

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Saturday, May 9, 2020

BT: Traders cry foul over losses from SocGen actions on SIA shorts

I shared my views on this issue in an interview with The Business Times. Article was published in The Business Times papers today, and on its website yesterday.

Source: First published in The Business Times on Friday 8 May 2020:
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Thursday, May 7, 2020

SIA Rights - How traders loss all their money in SIA Daily Leverage Certificate through a bizarre price movement

SIA went ex-rights yesterday and there was some unusual and bizarre movement  in its share price wiping out  the total value of SIA  Daily  Leverage Certificate (DLC) 5 X Short which  has been suspended as the underlying price has appreciated more than 20% from their theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of S$3.71 which means that losses are now in excess 100% for this leverage product. The value of TERP was derived by Soc Gen, the market maker for DLC using a methodology which includes the rights share component based on the issuance of approx. 1.78bn shares and the Mandatory Convertible Bond (MCB).
The retail investors who bought the SIA 5XShort DLC were the amongst the worst casualties, they lost all their investments.  They are crying foul because they had bought the SIA 5XShort DLC based on the TERP that was derived by SIA which amounted to $4.16 as at Thursday closing price of $5.91.
Investors who bought the 5Xshort DLC had bet that SIA could continue to be weak given the poor fundamentals as a result of COVID 19. SIA share traded in a weird fashion  yesterday from a low of 4.15 to a high of 5.05 before closing at 4.40 and strangely it had closed at 4.62 at 5 pm at the closing bell only to be was bashed down to 4.40 at the after hour matching of trade by a big block order.  These weird price action leaves traders scratching their head.
Investors are complaining that there is no transparency and no level playing field when there are an official SIA derived TERP at 4.16 and a TERP derived by Soc Gen at 3.71 which is not publish and retail investors have no privy to the information. Investors content that big gap in the TERP potentially opens the door to market manipulation because if someone had information that the TERP is at 3.71 and the markets perceives it at  4.16, it is obvious that the airbags for the DLC will easily burst resulting in the DLC being delisted. Fuelling more discontent , if Soc Gen had used the same official TERP at 4.16 investors will have sufficient time to exit their position and perhaps the airbags wouldn’t have burst.
One investor actually wrote to SIA Investor Relation and got this reply:
“With regards to your query, it would not be relevant to calculate the TERP based on MCBs prior to maturity given the nature and trading characteristics of both types of securities (e.g. no market quote/price for MCB prior to issuance compared to ordinary shares traded on an exchange)”
Soc Gen adjusted TERP 3.71 is significantly different from the announced TERP by SIA at 4.16 . Being a material difference, this should be communicated clearly to traders of DLCs on a timely basis before the ex-rights date. The significant difference in the adjusted price create a huge price disadvantage for those who are holding on the SIA DLC shorts while huge advantage to SIA DLC long.
What’s going here… its bizarre . At S$4.77 SIA  is even higher than the TERP price of S$4.16 base on a pre-ex-rights price of S$5.91. The S$4.77 price would indicate a pre-ex-rights price of S$7.44! WoW. Overnight, SIA’s price/share has increased from S$5.91 to S$7.44 which is an appreciation of 26%!
Many traders are asking me whether there was any conspiracy behind this weird price movement to flush out all the traders holding the shorts from the people who had privy information of the adjusted TERP at 3.71.  Frankly after having being involved in promoting DLC with Soc Gen and SGX since its inception,  I don’t think there is any malaise but someone must be held accountable for this confusion which has resulted in huge losses and loss of confident for derivative product listed on SGX.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, May 1, 2020

Starhub Q1 Results Is Due On 6 May - How will it fare? How Does It Look On The Chart?

Starhub Q1 earnings will be due on 6 May (Wed), how’s it going to fare in view of the Covid 19 lockdown?

1.    With travel restrictions around the world all but halted Roaming cut from roaming revenues will be severely hit. as border restrictions around the world have all but halted travel. Analyst estimate roaming revenues to be about 10% of StarHub’s service revenues.

2.    Pre-paid is another area that will likely see some pressure, with foreign workers and tourists big contributors to this segment. Both segments are under strain from the travel restrictions into Singapore.
3.    With the population staying indoors an the closure of non-essential businesses the  during the CB,  handset sales will come under pressure.

4.    A common assumption is that with many staying at home, there will be more consumption of data and watching PayTV.  With almost 100 % of the household connected to broadband, most will use Wi Fi.

How’s my outlook for Wednesday result? This blog believe it will disappoint. On the charts it is also overbought tested one month high at 1.49 on 30 Apr, a retracement to 1.37 in the stock term is possible in the near term .  It broke above the 200 Days MA which technically is strong but the price action over the last 6 months shows the price is unable to hold able the 200 MA and is vulnerable to a correction.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only