Thursday, February 18, 2021

Pacific Basin 2343.HK - Provides Dry Bulk Delivery Services , A Commodity Recovery Theme Play


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Commodity Super Cycle That Will Last for next 7-10 Years Could Just Have Started

In the past 120 years we have seen four major cycle peaks in the Broad Commodity Index measured by its 10-year rate-of-change indicator, with the most recent peak in 2008. This historical supercycle pattern shows that commodity prices could be sets up for the next secular bull market. Bull market in commodities are volatile, don’t expect a smooth ride.

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Bitcoin Hit Channel Line Chart Point At 52,600, Could Retrace In The Short Term.


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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Inflation on the rise

Inflation is on the rise , question is, does the market really care. Obviously, it hasn’t cared yet. I think it’s the biggest risk. Nobody is really bother because of the belief there will be fiscal stimulus and that it’s going to be highly supportive of economic growth and the stock market.

The House has just given its approval to Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus plan and when this money gets into the hands of the American people it will unleash another wave of spending spree that will cause prices of goods and services to skyrocket.
The US ISM Manufacturing Price Paid Index was up 5.8% MoM and 54% YoY in January to the highest level since April 2011 . While core inflation in the Eurozone soared to 1.4% YoY in January, way above expectations

On Wednesday (Feb 3, 2021) , the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a Treasury market metric of inflation expectations, was at 2.30, the highest since April 2013. That means market pros expect inflation to average 2.3% over the next five years. The measure compares the 5-year Treasury yield to the TIPS note of the same duration.

The market has not priced in the ballooning debts but rather the positive outcome of the relieve stimulus package.

If inflation gets too hot, that could turn into a negative for stocks, and it would crimp corporate earnings by pressuring margins

CEIC Data, Eurostat


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Thursday, February 4, 2021

Bitcoin Goes On The Main Stream

Central banker indiscriminate easy money policies has flooded the world with fiat money with Federal debts held by pubic equivalent to world war 2 levels . We are in the midst of the largest monetary experiment in human history, with no foreseeable end. Governments worldwide are adopting quantitative easing policies while simultaneously running progressively larger deficits on top of increasingly untenable debt levels. Considering that 25% of all US dollars ever created were made in 2020, bitcoin could also act as an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal irresponsibility from central banks.

Bitcoin's reflexivity
In the past institutions couldn't buy bitcoin . Today bitcoins is a viable investment asset class with liquidity, a regulatory framework, established exchanges and its market cap.
Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor have both invested in cryptos and they highlighted its potential as a hedge against inflation

An increasing number of reputable firms and respected investors have acknowledged and purchased bitcoin, lowering the career risk for investment managers who want to incorporate the cryptocurrency into their professional portfolios. US market regulators are also opening up to the concept of institutional money flowing into bitcoin. In addition, central bank digital currencies will naturally push people towards further acceptance of digital value accrual.

At the time of writing, Ethereum continue to scale new high on track to my 1800 target and Bitcoin should test 39700 resistance before attempting for its ATH at 42K.



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