War Scare On Korean Peninisula

All the talks and tension about possible war breaking out in Korea but the KOSPI continue to break new high breaking out of its 6 years trading range this week above 2,200 level for the first time since 2011. Certainly the price action is Kospi doesn't suggest that war is imminent. Having said that, Trump decision to end "Strategic Patience" with North Korea shows his resolve to seek a decisive resolution to this threat. Gold remains good hedge for investors who are overweight in equities.

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Nasdaq (Monthly Chart) - Approaching Multi Year Chart Point at 6150.

Nasdaq could hit a important inflexion point tonight when Trump announce his Reform Tax plan, At this chart point, history suggest the market could correct 20%.

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Market Volatility will be Back after Trump's Reform Tax Announcement on Wednesday

Market rally on French Election news and expectation of Trump`s reform tax announcement on Wednesday.  The market  will be strong until Trump`s reform tax announcement which is largely priced in. After Wednesday the market will start to focus on the tension in Korean Penisula and the possibility of US federal government spending shout down if congress don`t pass the spending bill  by 28 April midnight . If Trump insist on building the Mexico Wall , the risk of shut down will heightened. Enjoy the rally until Wednesday , volatility will be back on this weekend.

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Dow

A month ago this blog has warned that Dow could have peaked at 21150. On 5 Apr, this blog warned that if the crucial support at 20515 is cracked, there is a risk that Dow could fall 400 points to 20100. Yesterday, it tested its 3 months low at 20410. It could stage a minor rebound from here, but as long as it stays below 20515, there is a good chance 20100 will be tested.

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STI

The last time it touched the 50 day MA in Dec 16, a huge rally followed. Today it touched the 50 days MA again but this time a correction may be on the cards. The price action is pointing to more weakness ahead. In the short term it could be headed for 3090 and eventually 3030.

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S&P 500 and the Dow on Wednesday closed below their 50-day moving averages

But both the S&P 500 and the Dow on Wednesday closed below their 50-day moving averages, a technical threshold they last closed under right around Election Day. The S&P fell below its 50-day of 2,351, declining 8 points to 2,344, while the Dow finished Wednesday beneath its 50-day, losing 59 points to 20,591.
The 50-day moving average is just what it sounds like — the average of the last 50 days of closing prices, and technical strategists look at a close below that average as a set up for a potential sell off. Traders will be watching how the stock market moves off of this level Thursday.

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Canaccord Colts Initiated Coverage on Tawana and Alliance Mineral

Extracts from Canaccord Colts Research Report

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Gold

Has been kept down because of expectation of Fed hiking rates and the Trump's reflation story. With Trump's factor taking a back sit and geopolitical tension in Syria and North Korea taking centre stage, its time to look at Gold. Its a matter of time before it will breakout 1621 resistance. It formed a good based at 1200 and has been testing 1261 level many times. This blog believe the 1261 level will eventually be taken out and Gold should head towards 1290 in the short term.

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Dow

Made 5 attempts at 20725 last 1 month but failed to hold above. Next minor support is at 20617 but the important support is at 20515. If this level is broken there are only 2 clearly defined support at 20122 and 19955. This 2 supports are very far down from here and it could cause some panic in the market. Fed has turned hawkish, some Fed members even said the US markets are a overvalued in the the minutes of the FOMC. Investor's increased scepticism about Trumps's ability to implement its stimulus policies, including the most important corporate tax cut is causing concern. This poses a risk for the highly valued US market.

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Market Depth Trading Strategies at SGX!

Last night's topic was unusual. It attracted many seasoned traders. It was maximum capacity crowd at the SGX auditorium with many people left without seats. I shared about how to identify fake and real buy/sell queue, how to identify stocks that are controlled by program trading, how to integrate market depth with volume distribution and price action on the charts. I gave real case studies of stocks traded over the last days to show how market depth could be use to pin point price target. For those who cannot get a ticket to come tonight . SGX is considering a rerun due to the overwhelming response tonight. Stay tune to SGX academy website https://www.sgxacademy.com/ for the next seminar!

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Free Preview Seminar for MTM Course June 2017

*Update: the preview session on 10 April has been changed to 18 April 2017.

I will be conducting a series of preview seminars for my upcoming Master the Markets advanced trading course in June. The first one will be held on:

• 10 April 2017, Monday 18 Apr 2017, Tuesday
  7 pm - 9 pm
  17 Phillip Street
  #08-00 Grand Building
  Singapore 048695

If you are interested or have any enquiries about the course, you can contact our course manager:

• Andy Tan
  6505 0192
  andytanst@cyberquote.com.sg 

Register for the free preview seminar here! See you there!

• https://cyberquote.wishpond.com/landing-page-robinho/

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Alliance Minerals

Amazing recovery inspite of being designated as a restricted share by major broking houses. Last Friday i shared on the chat group that 0.285 was a strong support on my tradeplan and that happened to be the low for friday. This blog believe that today's price action is very bullish for 3 reasons:
1. weak holders were flushed out on friday
2. since many houses need cash up front to purchase this stock, more strong players are in this trade.
3. inspite of limited credit in the market, this stock still attract strong order flow. Could be a sign of good news in the offing.

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Tawana (Alliance Mineral's 50% JV partner in Ball Hill Park Lithium Project)

Its share prices were taking new high recently while Alliance share price was hammered last week when broking houses restricted buy limit on this stock. This blog continued to stay bullish on Alliance for all the good progress on the project and imminent report of 'Mass Production Viability' and results of Advance talks with off-takers.

Below extracts from Tawana recent project presentation:

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