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Friday, January 31, 2020
Wuhan Coronovirus Epidemic - When Will The Stock Market Bottomed Out?
The first outbreak on 6 February 2003, and bottomed out 25 April. A strong rebound followed and the indices ended the year higher. MSCI Hong Kong and Hang Seng Index in 2003. Expert say that this virus is less fatal but more infectious and indeed it took only 8 months for SaRs to spread to 8000 people. The Wuhan virus infected 8100 people in 30 days. The fast spreading virus has so far only impacted travel and tourism but the outbreak will inevitably cause a supply chain hiccup and a near-term earnings decline for tech firms with exposure to China. Chinese companies will suffer more than foreign ones. We could also see a delay in China’s 5G deployment and PC and smartphone production trouble. One company that will inevitably suffer is Lenovo Group 0992.HK, almost 60% of their smartphone production comes from factories in Wuhan. Drawing lessons from SARs , we are probably in the early days of the epidemic and nobody at this stage could fathom the depths of economic damage it can inflict. It took Hang Seng about 2 months to recover from SARs , it may take longer this time . If what the expert say is true , this virus will strike more fear because it is fast spreading and this will cost many companies to suspend business which will be detrimental to the economy and the stock market. The markets in US seems immune to the virus but i believe the damage will eventually find its way to the American shore .
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