China A50 Index - All Set to Roar Again After A One Month Consolidation

This blog remain bullish on Chinese equities and will be a buyer on pullbacks. The key drivers for A shares this year will be the prospect of a 3 steps  inclusion of A shares into MSCI beginning in May , Aug and Nov 2019 . MSCI has sped up the exposure to China A shares by bringing forward the timeline of including midcap securities from May 2020 to Nov 2019. The weight of China A shares in MSCI index will increase from 5% to 20% by the end of the year

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Market Outlook March 2019 Highlights

We just wrapped up our market outlook last Saturday, 23 March 2019. More than 300 people gathered to hear Robin share his insights on the market.

The next market outlook has been scheduled on 3 August 2019. Register by Sunday, 31 March 2019 for Super Early Bird price: https://bit.ly/2TO076G

Here are the highlights of the seminar.

S&P 500 and US 10 year treasury yield have been diverging

US 10 year and 3 month Yield Curve just inverted, a potential recession indicator

Gold and US dollar are moving in the same direction, a departure from their
usual negative correlation, which casts doubt on the current stock market rally.

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GLLI (B16) - Broke Out Of a Prolong Downtrend With Creditable Volume .

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SGX Course - March 2019 Intake

Today, we wrapped up our 1.5 day course with SGX.

In this class, we have full time traders, remisiers, as well as students who are totally new to trading. Everyone was here to learn a life skill and create a new source of income with trading.

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8-Figure Trading Blueprint with Dr Wealth

Last week, we concluded the inaugural 8 Figure Trading Blueprint Course with Dr. Wealth.

One of the highlights of the course was on 12 March, the fateful day Boeing's stock was sold down as more countries were grounding their 737 Max planes. Robin had prepared the trade plan together with the class before US market opened. At 1030pm, everyone stayed back to witness how the price moved according to the trade plan.

It was an eye opening experience for the students to see the trade plans they had done together come alive in real time.

The next intake for 8-Figure Trading Course is coming up in June 2019. 

For more information about the course, check out the official website of the course.

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Jardine C & C - High Debt and Margin Drag Could Post More Challenges.

Jardine C & C - - Earnings drop due to higher interest cost . Net debt remain elevated at US 1.3b contributing to higher financing cost . A rights issue could be in the offing this year. Negative margin from Astra's automotive business is a concern . If 32.00 support give way, the next target is 30.00

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S & P 500 - Price Action Is Consistent . Expect A Correction Soon!

 S & P Price Action since Oct 18 has not change after falling below the 200 MA it managed to roll back again with a 1.5 to 2 % premium to the 200 days MA before rolling over again with the respective discount at 5%  Oct , 4.5% in Nov and 15% in Dec 18. Currently the S&P is  1.3% premium above the 200 days MA just below  the overhead resistance at 2823. As long as price stay below this level , sifu expect a correction between 5 to 7% in the short term.

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Thomson Medical - Testing Key Resistance , BB interest could be back

A Break Above Key Resistance at 0.081 could see prices heading for 0.088 and 0.09

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Sunpower - It Could Be A Distribution Phase, Standby For Exit

Blow Out Volume and Price action  could indicate that the Big Boys are exiting the trade

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Hong Kong Land - One of My Favourite Short Set - Up

Hong Kong Land - This is one of my favorite setup to initiate shorts for a l-2 months swing trade. The stock broke its long term uptrend in Aug 18 and has since rebounded to the overhead resistance line on the uptrend line . A pull back is imminent .

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Dow - Testing Overhead 200 Days Resistance and RHO Trendline

DOW Tradeplan  - Dow is currently testing the overhead  200 days MA and the RHO Trendline resistance. This Blog expect the current counter trend rally to run out of steam soon , a break a below 247760 will take the index to 24310 , 23180 and 22625 . Its worth noting the volume traded on 31 Jan was the highest in January , an indication the index could pull back soon.

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Hang Seng Index - The current rally could be peaking soon .

Hang Seng Index -  The current rally could be peaking soon . Today the prices ran into the overhead resisstance of both RHO Trendline and the 200 Days MA  suggesting this rally could run out of steam soon. Prices briefly went above the 28,000 mark . A fallback to 26700 could be on the cards.

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GSS Energy - Renewed buying interest from BBs

GSS Energy looks bullish. Big Boys are supporting as we see renewed buying interest today though the stock is due for selling from the high volume day a week ago, Next target 0.136, cut loss 0.119.

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Gold - Holding firm above 200 day moving average

Gold - Holding up firmly above the 200 day moving average. Key resistance at 1305. If it can break an stay above 1305, it will likely head for its next target at 1347 and 1410 respectively.

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Next Market Moving Event : US - China Trade Talk On 30-31 Jan – Will There Be A Deal?

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 41%. This is because the longest US federal government shutdown in history has started to make an impact on the economy with an estimated 800,000 workers not being paid and governments contractors payments delayed. Donald knows he needs to win back the public confidence if he wants to seek an re-election into the second term in office.

On the second summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will be held late next month. Trump wants to register a “win” in this  area where all of the previous presidents have failed.
Trump knows that Kim is not going to agree to a deal based on the demands based on conditions to
shuts down all its existing nuclear facilities based on advise of national security hawks such as John Bolton. This is why Trump needs the support of Xi to try to come up with some formula which bridges the current impasse.

Desperate to win back public confidence, needing the support of Xi on the Korean De-nuclearisation With the world and US economy heading in recession, street wise Donald knows he has messed up and needs a trade deal with China.

Last week The Wall Street Journal’s report that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin favours removing the existing tariffs introduced last year which support this view that Donald wants a deal with China. The proposed deal hopes to soften China position  in areas such as intellectual property and market access.

Meanwhile opposition voices against China stealing of Intellectual Property rights are getting louder,
last Wednesday lawmakers introduced bills that would ban the sale of US chips or other components to Huawei, ZTE or other Chinese telecom companies that “are in violation of the export control of the United States”. President Xi knows that he has to do a deal while Trump is still in office because future US leaders may be more hostile towards China. China is correct to offer an increase in imports from America by a combined value of more than US$1tn over the next six years, seeking to reduce its trade surplus with the US to zero by 2024.

It makes sense to assume a deal will be done and the existing tariffs will be removed, as well as the threatened tariffs not implemented. This is why the stock market will continue to hold up until 30-31 January.

Still, this blog's base case is that the current rally, which start started after Christmas has helped Dow Jones recover 60% since it hit a low on Boxing Day, is a counter trend rally in a broader Bear Market that was ignited on the news of Trade War 90 days Truce and the prospect of relaxing monetary policies.

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DOW - Approaching Sell Zone .

Dow Jones - Approaching Sell Zone between 24860 and 25325. It is also approaching the 200 days Moving Average Overhead Resistance . The sell zone also marks a 60% retracement of the Dec low. This blog has maintained that the 1Q19 rally a rebound within a broader bear market . The Dow should retest its Dec low in the 2Q19.

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Best World - 3rd attempt at breakout failed

Best world made third attempt at breaking 2.79, but failed. Next support at 2.54, a break below this level will be short term bearish.

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Ezion - Next Move could be down

We see similar price action for Ezion as in November 2018, when there was a spike in volume for a day to push up the price, but no follow-up volume in the subsequent days. Could history repeat itself?

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Netflix - rebound could be ending

Netflix at 321 will complete the its rebound and could pull back to 292 and 272.

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Silverlake Axis - Bearish Bar Emerged

Company announced it clinched 8 new contracts in the last 6 months, and signed services contract with AEON Vietnam. These are good news that should see the price go up, but instead the BB took the opportunity to unload the stock. The price action looks bearish. Any break below 0.40 could see the price accelerate to 0.345 and 0.295.

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