Dow Jones - 1080 points potential gain with RHO Strategy

Dow Jones hit our RHO Intermediate Day Low at 11.32pm, shortly after the market opened and rebounded 317 points. It went on to test the RHO Intermediate Day Low again, before breaking out at 3.41am for a 763 points rally! Total potential intraday gain 1080 points, 4.83%!

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S&P 500 - 3.56% Potential Intraday Return

S&P 500 briefly touched our RHO Intermediate Day Low last night and rebounded 85 points, 3.56% potential gain in the same day! Congrats to subscribers who traded based on the signal!

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Hang Seng Index - RHO Day High precision within 5 points!

Both the Hang Seng Day High and Day Low predictions on 27 December were spot on! Our RHO day high 25915 was within 5 points from the actual day high of 25920! It went on to correct 469 (1.81%) within the same day. The RHO day low was tested a few more times before it broke down further, validating it as a key level.

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518 points from short trades when Dow Jones had its biggest points gain in history!

It was a bullish trading day on 26 Dec after the Christmas Holiday. Dow Jones recorded its biggest points gain in history, with a 1158 points rally at the stroke of midnight. 

However, though it did not hit our predicted day low, our RHO Index Key Levels strategy still managed to yield good returns on the corrections. A short trade at RHO intermediate day high at 12.57am could have yielded 352 points, and a short trade at RHO day high at 1.57am could have yielded 166 points. I am glad that the RHO day high was tested again at 3.27 am before the final 558 points rally. This shows that the RHO predicted levels were indeed significant levels.

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Long Dow and S&P on a bearish trading day? Quick intraday trade with RHO Index Key Levels!

Dow Jones hit the predicted day low on Christmas Eve and rebounded 312 points! Even on a bearish trading day, the RHO strategy managed to give a good return for a long trade, before it fell 545 points to close at day low. The RHO predicted day low was tested a few more times, which shows that it is indeed a significant level.

On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 hit RHO predicted day low at the same time as Dow Jones! Similarly, it managed to rebound  38 points (1.42%) in the same day, before falling 58 points (2.41%) to close at day low. With the RHO Index Key Level strategy, you will have more trading opportunities at high probability levels, whether in a bull or bear market!

Sign up for one month free trial here!

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Dow Jones - the bottom is still way off

Volume traded on Dow Jones on 21 December was the highest in the last 5 years. It is the first sign of PANIC. We could see some short covering but the bottom is still way off!

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SMIC 0981.HK - Get ready For The Next Leg Down

Semiconductor stocks have corrected but this blog thinks that not everything has been priced in. We are seeing more cuts and downgrades in the past one month than any other months this year. Things will be getting worse and semiconductor companies are in for a bruising 6 months ahead. History shows that semicon stocks only bottomed at cycle trough , this blog continue to add SMIC , a stock that I have spoken about in my last Market Outlook on 8 Dec. 

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Dow Jones - Broke Below Crucial Support at 23333

Dow Jones broke below 1 year consolidation range and last strong support at 23333.

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Predicted Dow Jones day high within 2 points, 3.72% in an hour!

Dow Jones had a wildly volatile trading session last night, with an intraday range of almost 700 points. Our RHO Index Key Level prediction managed to call the day high within 2 points, and it subsequently fell 694 points, giving a potential gain of 3.72% in an hour! The intermediate day high was also tested a few times, as highlighted in the chart below, which validated that it was indeed a key level. 

Congratulations to subscribers who benefited from the signal last night! 

For trading ideas, Follow our RHO Trading Signals Facebook page.

Also Claim your one month free trial and join other subscribers who have been benefiting from RHO Index Key Levels every day.

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Fed Meeting Tonight - Most Watched In Years .... How will it affect the market?

Trump’s Jerome Powell-focused tweets has blasted the Fed for two days running, calling for officials to cease raising interest rates, a level of public pressure no president has put on the Fed in decades.

Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting Tuesday, perhaps its most scrutinized session in years. While sentiments on the stock market has been weak, the U.S. jobs market is still strong and the outlook for 2019 is relatively solid, so the case for a hike hasn’t disappeared. 

However, it raises the issue of Federal Reserve policy, which has become more politicised and in this respect, Powell’s comment in a speech at the Economic Club of New York that interest rates remain “just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy” has, not surprisingly, been interpreted as dovish by the markets. This is why current market expectations of only two more rate hikes (including December) by the end of 2019. 

Many traders are expecting the Fed to say something dovish tonight that will give the market a “Santa Claus” rally towards the year end. Sifu think this view carry with it much risk, because if Fed signal a pause, it would have been expected, worse still if Powell give in to Donald’s pressure and decide not raise rate tonight , the market will crash for fear that the central bank now see that a recession is plausible.

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6 Warning signs the bull market could be ending (Market Outlook Dec 2018 Recap)

In my latest market outlook titled "Last Man Standing", I covered various warning signs that the extended bull run in the US could be coming to an end. After the massive sell off in the stock market we witnessed last week, I think it will be apt to do a short recap now.

You may click here to download the PDF of "6 Warning signs the bull market could be ending".

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SOX - The Semi Conductor Index Has Gone Into a Bear Market. The easing of trade tension between China and US resulting in a rebound is a opportunity  for traders to sell the semiconductor stocks again. The underlying fundamental in the semiconductor companies are worsening with or without the trade war. Both Nvidia and AMD pointed in their CY3Q18 earnings calls, they suffer from excessive GPU inventory, left over by the crypto currency burst .  They are unlikely to clear out their inventory by year end .

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Testimonials for Robin Ho's SGX course (2018 Nov)

On the final day of my course at SGX, the whole class came together and watched me trade the Hang Seng Index, live!

For the first time, I had a student from England, Alex. The live trading session has helped him to understand how to apply the skills that was taught, and make trading decisions in real time.

Another student, Mr. Leow has been trading for many years. During the live trading session, he followed me to trade the Hang Seng Index, and even managed to make some profits!

We also had Janish, who is a professional trader. He wanted to learn how to do day trading, and felt more confident about day trading after the course.

You may watch the video compilation of the testimonials below. 

If you would like to be my client or attend a course by me, simply fill in the form at my official feedback channel. See you soon!

Robin Ho

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FANG Index - too early to bottom fish

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L3 Technology

Reversal formation will be confirmed on the break below 185. Next target 174 and 165 with the final objective at 140.

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RHO trade following on Algomerchant – an amazing journey has come to an end

Dear subscribers,

Today, I would like to formally announce the end of my trade following service collaboration with Algomerchant. I believe this has been the only live trade following service for Singapore stocks.

Thanks for your steadfast support. It has been a fruitful journey and an amazing experience together since we began more than two years ago on 31 March 2016.

We started with virtual capital of SGD$1,000,000 and since then, the portfolio has gained $314,411.62 in realized profit at the time of writing, which translates into 13.19% per annum since inception, compared to 7.92% for the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI).

In the past 6 months, the return of RHO portfolio was positive 4.18%, while STI was negative 13.72%, and over the past 12 months, RHO portfolio was positive 3.42% while STI was negative 9.33%.

My partner Flowseeker has also performed admirably. He started with virtual capital of SGD$100,000 and the portfolio currently has realized profit of $39,333.51. 

If you have any queries, simply get in touch with us via our official feedback form: https://goo.gl/forms/thIDNTBRKPSbhaqK2

Regards,

Robin Ho

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Master the Markets Course 2018 (Oct) - Testimonials

Welcome the graduates of my Master the Markets Course (October 2018)! Over two weeks of intensive learning, we tracked a portfolio together, and went through chart after chart to see how our trade plans played out in real time. On the final day, we even traded together, live! Hope this class has given you a good start in your trading journey!

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The Fang Index - Broke Below its Long Term Trend for the First Time In 5 Years

The FANG Index - Losses Its Bite ! The FANG index broke below its long uptrend  and 200 day Moving Average for the first time in 5 years. The FANG have been providing leadership to the US markets for this bull cycle and when it losses its bite the US markets "Last Man Standing " outperformance of the Global Market could be in doubt. The technical damage to the Fang has strenght sifu's view that the US market has peaked for the cycle. Fang's        " Winner Takes All" business model could be faced challenges from regulation with its highly published data breaches for Google and Facebook, another threat faced by these companies are the decentralised technology disruption provided by Block Chain

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DLC Webcast: HSI is trying to stabilize at 24500 level

Major U.S. indexes finished the week in the red, hurt by a post-earnings plunge in key tech companies Alphabet and Amazon. The S&P 500 fell into correction territory by falling 10% from its recent high. For China, CSRC says China to implement New Share Buyback Rules from 26-Oct, relaxing the conditions for listed companies to buy back shares to support share prices. Hang Seng Index gapped up nearly 200 points and then pulled back to test the bottom support at around 24,500 points level.

Watch the webcast here:

https://dlc.socgen.com/en/webcast-inside.php?id=44

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Taiwan Msci Index - The Big Boys Just Left the Market!

One of RHO most Bearish Setup!

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PHLX Semi Conductor Index - Yesterday 6.6% fall Could Confirm The Multi Year Double Top Formation .

Today's 6.6% Fall On The PHLX Semi Conductor Index (SOX) confirms a Double Top Reversal pattern and signal the start of a Bear Market for the Semi Conductors Stocks. Its time to take a Long Term bearish view. This blog base strategy is to ride a portfolio of weak tech stocks with a Stop Loss at the year high of the index

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China SunSine - Consolidation Between 0.94 to 1.01 could be over soon! Watch for the break below 0,94!

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DLC webcast: HSI is trying to find support at 25500

PBOC Governor, Yi Gang says central bank is considering a range of risks in its currency policy, including a worst-case scenario. RMB has normal volatility, to stay in reasonable range and now is at a “reasonable and equilibrium level. Hang Seng Index gapped down nearly 200 points and found the support at around 25,500 points level.

Click here to watch this week's DLC webcast. 

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Thomson Medical - warrants back in-the-money

The price action of Thomson Medical (TM) looks interesting these few days. With the existing TM Warrants expiring in April next year, the price of TM has now returned to $0.09, which is the exercise price of TM warrants.

If the price stays above $0.09-$0.095, there could be an opportunity for shareholders to arbitrage by selling their shares and convert their TM warrants into shares at $0.09 in order to receive the piggy-back warrants, which only expires in 3 years. Exercise price of the piggyback warrants is $0.12.

For the piggyback warrants to be listed, 100 shareholders have to exercise their TM warrants. From TM's point of view, investors exercising the warrants will be an important source of funds for its projects.

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Inflection Point

As the US indices tested their all time highs recently, we are seeing signs that the US market could be due for a major correction soon. Here are 3 signs that the US market is at its inflection point.

1) The US Dollar Index is poised for a breakout from its resistance at 95.7, towards the previous high of 97.

2) US 10-year treasury yield is testing the upper trend line of the channel and could be on the verge of a break out.

3) The Semi-conductor Index is forming a double top, and could break down soon.

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Best Buy Inc (BBY) - First Bearish Bar ! This stock could also have hit its long term peak and a major reversal of trend could be expected !

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DLC Webcast - China Weaker PMI numbers added more selling pressure

China Weaker PMI numbers showed 2 gauges of activity in China’s manufacturing sector worsened in September, reflecting the nation’s economic slowdown and the fallout from the trade war with the U.S. Hang Seng Index dropped back to the 10D and 20D SMA and now is trying to stabilize at around 27,300 points level.

Click here to watch the webcast: https://dlc.socgen.com/en/webcast-inside.php?id=40

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Italian Politics Will Shake The Markets

Italy Politics Will Shake The Market

With the focus on Trump’s Trade War  and its  potential fallout in other emerging markets, traders forgot about the Italy and the Eurozone. Yesterday the Italian Government agreed to a 2019 budget deficit target of 2.4% of GDP that could bring it into direct conflict with the European Union. It will now begin its passage through Parliament before being presented to EU by 20 October 2018.

This blog believes that the current Italian government is

likely to trigger a renewed existential crisis in the Eurozone

Compared with other countries in eurozone ,  Italy has recorded almost no growth

since the formation of the euro at the beginning of 1999. Italian real GDP has risen by only an

annualised 0.4% since 1Q99 and is up only an annualised 0.1% in real GDP per capita terms over the

same period.

While pundits are worried about  Trump-triggered trade war, rising interest rates or overvalued

Wall Street FANG stocks Ths blog believes that a systemic event in financial markets is more likely to be

triggered by Italy and the Eurozone . Still, they are all interconnected phenomena since, for example, a renewed focus on the existential risks in the Eurozone is likely to put renewed downward pressure on the

euro which will then lead to strong  US dollar.

This will in turn make it more challenging emerging countries to pay their debts. Similarly, an escalation in trade wars are likely to drive the  US dollar higher.

For now this blog is short on the Euro dollar and the Dax in anticipation of a renewed existent crisis in Eurozone in October

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Cosco Shipping- broke out of downtrend. Could something be brewing?

Parent company Cosco Shipping Port (1199.hk) was up 6% today, on the highest volume in two years. Cosco Shipping Singapore (F83) has also broken out of its long term down trend, and is currently testing the resistance of $0.415. Could something be brewing? First target is $0.445, followed by $0.47.

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SIMSCI - Nice Rebound But A Pullback Is Imminent

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The MSCI Spore Index (SIMSCI ) Future - Volume Could Have Peaked Today, It Could Fall Soon!

The MSCI Spore Index (SIMSCI ) FUTURE -
Peak Volume  and  Price Decline Correlation
In the last 6 months, Peak Volume in SIMSCI has been followed shortly by Price Decline. Today the SIMSCI volume seems to be peaking! Another Canary In The Gold Mine?

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DLC Webcast: HSI fell below 27000 points

Robin's DLC webcast is up on Soc Gen's website.

BBG reported President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on nearly $200 billion more in Chinese products, despite attempts to revive talks aimed at resolving the trade war. Hang Seng Index dropped back to the 10D SMA and fluctuated around 27,000 points level today.

For this week's market outlook and Trade Plans, watch the video here:

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Simsci Prediction for 12 Sep 2018

Simsci hit our predicted day high today and corrected 1.83 points in 140 minutes!

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RHO Trading Signals - Promising Results!

Our RHO Quick Win (Asia) signals for the past two days yielded promising results!

Signal for Capitaland was first sent out yesterday, and today it broke down from the trigger price of $3.41, before hitting the first take profit target of $3.38. It could be heading for the second target $3.26.

This morning, we also saw the signal of Hongkong Land at 10.04 am. It has since hit the first take profit target of $6.79.

For more details about RHO Trading Signals, simply email 

to:  tanyunyou@phillip.com.sg, cc robinhosa@phillip.com.sg

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China Sunsine - Price touches Long Term Trendline Support But Breakdown Looks Inevitable

China SunSine  -  Touched the Long Term trendline support   today at 1.13 , could rebound to 1.20 in the short term but the distribution pattern at the top  suggest Big Boys could have exited and a Breakdown below this long term trend is  inevitable.

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DLC Webcast ~ 3 September 2018

Robin's webcast for DLC is ready.

For this week's market outlook and Trade Plans, watch the video here:

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RHO Index Key Levels Prediction - Simsci 27 August 2018

Simsci hit our projected day high, and corrected 1.9 points in 288 minutes!

To receive RHO Index Key Levels signals on your handphone, click here for more details.

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Hang Seng Property Index - The Fundamentals and Technicals are pointing to a Impending Crash !

For the last 30  years , the Hang Seng Property index has experienced 2 Big Crashes in 1997 and 2008.. From my Chart, after nearly 10  years of uptrend since 2009 the index has reached a multi year peak and is about to experience another major crash. This could come in the next 6 months. The Fundamentals for such a crash is also in place with rising interest rates, slowing economy and a depreciating Chinese Yuan . From 2005-2006 period property price correction was triggered by mortgage rate hike, in 2008 it was caused by economic downturn due to the global financial crisis and in 2015-2016 period it was due to Chinese yuan depreciation. All the headwinds are now in playto trigger yet another property crash. This blog is bearish on Country Garden, SHKP and Sino Land.

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Its A Matter Of the King Dollar

The US Dollar Index has broken above its key 95 resistance level and would be heading for the next resistance levels 97.7,  99.00 and 1.00. With the dollar strength , the cheap dollar that drives a multi year borrowing binge that fueled heady growth is about to take its toll on Emerging Countries laden with dollar debts. Turkey crisis  is the latest example of  a Dollar victim  which expert fear would spread to other emerging markets. Turkey could be a canary in gold mine for the vast amount of cheap dollar loans accumulated worldwide since central bankers started Quantitative Easing in 2009. The Donald Trump led Fiscal easing and Monetary tightening , will continue to power the dollar higher. Trump has been using trade sanction and strong dollar as a part of his bullying tactics to pursue the American agenda. As long as the dollar bull continues, Asia and emerging markets will continue to be weak and the only place to put your money will be the Trump led US stock market.

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HSI Prediction on 7 Aug 2018 - Using the key levels in trade plan

Yesterday morning, Hang Seng Index hit the projected day high and corrected 159 points in 50 minutes. It went on to stage a strong recovery, hitting and consolidating at the 28010 level again, before hitting the stop loss which is 100 points away. From the chart below, we can see how the price tested the RHO Index Key Levels published before the market had opened. On hind sight, the levels yesterday would have formed an effective trade plan.

To find out more about RHO Index Key Levels, you may get more details here.

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RHO Index Key Levels Hang Seng Index hit target, DLC Webcast ~ 6 August 2018

The RHO Index Key levels for Hang Seng Index hit the projected day high, and went on to fall 311 points in 215 minutes!

To get access to RHO Index Key Levels notifications on your mobile phone, visit: https://www.tradingkungfu.com/product/rho-key-levels/

Robin has shared his views about the market on this week's DLC webcast with Soc Gen. You may watch the video and join the DLC interest group here: https://www.tradingkungfu.com/dlc/

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